No boost likely as Trump’s hateful campaign limps back to Maine

For the third time, Donald Trump drags his bigoted and hateful campaign to Maine.

This time, he comes in the wake of the Republican and Democratic national conventions, which showed him to be outclassed by Democrat Hillary Clinton, even at the thing he pretends to know best — show business.

Trump will appear at an event in Portland, his second trip to the most liberal town in the state. Trump’s campaign thinks that Maine is up for grabs and that their man has a real chance of capturing the state’s four electoral votes.

Early public polling, before the conventions, showed Clinton leading statewide, but a close race in Maine’s more conservative 2nd Congressional District, with a large number of undecided voters.

While Gov. Paul LePage’s two statewide electoral victories suggest that any crazy old thing can happen in election, it’s unlikely that Trump will carry Maine. And as the great sorting of the next three months carries on, I think the 2nd District will ultimately come home to Democrats.

Call me a dreamer, but I do not believe the voters in Maine will accept a misogynist, serial liar and racist — a man who would attack a war hero like U.S. Sen. John McCain and a Gold Star mother — as president.

Clinton comes out of her convention with a solid bump, leading Trump by between seven points and nine points nationally. As with all polling, it’s better to pay attention to poll averages than any single poll, and the averages also show Clinton with a lead nationally.

Presidential elections, however, aren’t decided by the popular vote. The election will be decided by the Electoral College, and there the terrain looks even worse for Trump.

The fact that Trump is paying so much attention to Maine isn’t a sign of strength here. It’s a sign of weakness just about everywhere else.

A protestor unfurls a banner at a Donald Trump campaign rally in Portland in March. Troy R. Bennett | BDN

A protestor unfurls a banner at a Donald Trump campaign rally in Portland in March. Troy R. Bennett | BDN

Trump’s campaign recognizes the bleak Electoral College picture and will be concentrating on just three large states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, The New York Times reported earlier this week.

Since the Democratic convention in Philadelphia, Trump has held two rallies in Pennsylvania. But it’s important to note that President Obama carried the state twice and, as the Times noted, no Republican has won there in nearly 30 years.

Florida and Ohio are also problematic for Trump, and it seems that traditional swing states like Virginia — home of Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Tim Kaine — North Carolina and Colorado are moving away from him.

In Maine, Trump finds a welcoming governor, something he lacks in Ohio, and a Portland media market that bleeds into New Hampshire. And you can guarantee that in Portland he will be greeted by protestors, who will generate even more press.

And if you’re wondering why Portland vs. a location further north or west, Portland’s media market covers about 40 percent of the voters in Maine’s 2nd District. That’s why candidates for Congress from the 2nd District have to buy ad time in the more expensive Portland market to reach their voters.

And if Trump is to have any chance in the state, he must cut into Clinton’s lead in the 1st District, where the Portland Press Herald had him trailing badly in June.

Trump loves being the center of attention, and all eyes in Maine will be on him when his circus comes to down. But he’s limping to town, embroiled in a new controversy because he continues to attack the parents of a Muslim-American war hero. In Maine, regardless of political party, we hold veterans in the highest regard.

His attacks are shameless and disgusting. And they’re going to be on full display.

Now for a P.S. Democrats, you need to knock it off with the shaming of Melania Trump, the nominee’s wife. It’s perfectly legitimate to criticize her for delivering a speech that was partially plagiarized and to question her resume.

But attacking her for photos from her career as a model, like the New York Post and other publications have done, doesn’t belong in the presidential race. It appeals only to the most prurient interests.

It is wrong when conservatives attack first lady Michelle Obama for her attire, for showing her arms and for her appearance. Are some Republicans being hypocritical? Yes.

But as the first lady said during her amazing convention speech, “When they go low, we go high.”

Please stop.

David Farmer

About David Farmer

David Farmer is a political and media consultant in Portland, where he lives with his wife and two children. He was senior adviser to Democrat Mike Michaud’s campaign for governor and a longtime journalist. You can reach him at dfarmer14@hotmail.com.